Market Forecasts

The huge decline in interest rates and the drop in stock prices leads me to the following forecasts. One of the first things that I think needs to be noted is that the peak in free market interest rates for this cycle occurred in late September.  Interest rates around the world have dropped significantly since [...]

Maximizing After-Tax Returns

A sure way to increase your after-tax return is to minimize taxes paid on your investments.  Investors should have the goal to maximize returns as tax efficiently as possible. There are a few things investors can do (or not do) to achieve this goal in their investment accounts.  (This does not apply to tax-deferred accounts [...]

What Happens Historically if the Yield Curve Inverts

Recently, there has been much debate over bond yields and the effect they have on the economy and stocks. Since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began hiking short-term rates in 2015, the yield curve has flattened, meaning that short-term rates have risen more than long-term rates. This is concerning to many investors as a flatter yield [...]

Bears, Bulls, Steepeners, Flatteners, Oh My!

Interest rates over the past decade have been a unique puzzle for investment professionals. First, the Federal Reserve held the Federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25% for seven years (from December of 2008 through December of 2015). Combined with the Quantitative Easing programs, what resulted was a historic and unprecedented artificial suppression of [...]

Break Free of Inertia in 2018

The current bull market is almost 9 years old, has had incredibly low volatility in the last year. As of February 2nd, the S&P 500 has not had a correction of 5% or more since June 2016.  In the last week, we have had a return of some volatility.  Has the volatility caused you to second guess your investment strategies?

A Bear Market is Lurking

But may be far off in time. As the current bull market nears its ninth year, the question is, are we near the end of the long bull market. A bear market is generally considered to be a twenty percent or larger decline in the markets. If we use history as our guide, it [...]

When Will Market Volatility Return?

As we enter the final months of 2017 the U.S. Stock market continues to make all-time highs.  This is occurring amid some uncertainties that could serve to increase short to medium-term volatility.   Let’s take a look at some of those potential challenges. S. stock valuations are stretched on a historical basis. Looking at forward price-to-earnings [...]

Successful Stock Investing

As we all know, the stock market is currently experiencing a significant bull market. It has been a powerful 8 ½ years with cumulative gains over 300% (including reinvested dividends). Equity investors have been rewarded handsomely for staying invested. Most people own stocks in their 401k/retirement accounts and in personal savings. This is good. Why [...]

Can the equity bull market continue on its current path?

The U.S. stock market continues to build momentum and is currently up 16 percent for the year, with new all-time highs seeming to occur on a daily basis. This bull market is now the second most powerful in history, in terms of performance and duration, rising more than 277 percent during its 8.5 years of [...]